Population pyramids: Powerful predictors of the future – Kim Preshoff

Population pyramids: Powerful predictors of the future – Kim Preshoff


Translator: Jessica Ruby
Reviewer: Caroline Cristal Russia, with the largest territory in the world, has roughly the same total population as Nigeria, a country 1/16 its size. But this similarity won’t last long. One of the populations is rapidly growing, while the other is slowly declining. What can this tell us about the two countries? Population statistics are some of the most important data social scientists and policy experts have to work with. But understanding a country’s situation and making accurate predictions requires knowing not just the total size of the population but its internal characteristics, such as age and gender distribution. So, how can we keep track of all that data in a way that makes it easy to comprehend? Complex data is more easily interpreted through visualization, and one of the ways that demographers represent the internal distribution of a population is the population pyramid. Here, the data is divided by gender with females on one side and males on the other. The population numbers are shown for each five-year age interval, starting from 0-4 and continuing up to 100 and up. These intervals are grouped together into pre-reproductive (0-14), reproductive (15-44), and post-reproductive years (45 and up). Such a population pyramid can be a powerful predictor of future population trends. For example, Rwanda’s population pyramid shows it to be a fast-growing country, with most of the population being in the youngest age groups at the bottom of the pyramid. The number will grow rapidly in the coming years. As today’s children reach their reproductive years and have children of their own, the total population is almost certain to double within the next few decades. For our second example, let’s look at Canada, where most of the population is clustered around the middle of the graph. Because there are less people in the pre-reproductive age groups than there are in the reproductive ones, the population will grow more slowly, as the number of people reaching their reproductive years decreases. Finally, let’s look at Japan. Because the majority of its population is in its post-reproductive years and the number of people is smaller at each younger interval, this means that at current rates of reproduction the population will begin to decline as fewer and fewer people reach reproductive age. Comparing these three population pyramids side by side shows us three different stages in a demographic transition, as a country moves from a pre-industrial society to one with an industrial or post-industrial economy. Countries that have only recently begun the process of industrialization typically see an increase in life expectancy and a fall in child mortality rates as a result of improvements in medicine, sanitation, and food supply. While birth rates remain constant, leading to a population boom. Developing countries that are farther along in the industrialization process begin to see a fall in birth rates, due to factors such as increased education and opportunities for women outside of child-rearing and a move from rural to urban living that makes having large families less economically advantageous. Finally, countries in advanced stages of industrialization reach a point where both birth and death rates are low, and the population remains stable or even begins to decline. Now, let’s take a look at the projected population pyramids for the same three countries in 2050. What do these tell us about the expected changes in each country’s population, and what kinds of factors can alter the shape of these future pyramids? A population pyramid can be useful not only as a predictor of a country’s future but as a record of its past. Russia’s population pyramid still bears the scars of World War II, which explains both the fewer numbers of elderly men compared to elderly women and the relatively sudden population increase as soldiers returned from the war and normal life resumed. China’s population pyramid reflects the establishment of the one child policy 35 years before, which prevented a population boom such as that of Rwanda but also led to sex-selective abortions, resulting in more male children than female children. Finally, the pyramid for the United States shows the baby boom that followed World War II. As you can see, population pyramids tell us far more about a country than just a set of numbers, by showing both where it’s been and where it’s headed within a single image. And in today’s increasingly interconnected world, facing issues such as food shortages, ecological threats, and economic disparities, it is increasingly important for both scientists and policy makers to have a rich and complex understanding of populations and the factors affecting them.

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  1. Japan -> หนักผู้สูงอายุ ในประเทศที่เจริญแล้วคนไม่มีลูกพร่ำเพรื่อ
    China กราฟช่วงหนึ่งยาวมากแล้วหดลงเรื่อยที่ row ต่ำลงไป -> นโยบาย 1 บ้าน 1 ลูก ป.ล. ชาวจีนคัดเน้นมีลูกชาย
    Russia -> คนสูงอายุเพศชายมีน้อยกว่าหญิง Scar จาก WWII
    Rwanda -> อัตราการเกิดสูง ทำให้ในภายหน้ากราฟจะขยับเยอะมาก

  2. The guy is totally wrong! When Jesus returns shortly and slaughters about 7 Billion Catholics, Muslims, Jews, Hindus, Buddhists, Taosists, New Agers, atheists, agnostics, Mormons, JWs, and all other pagans the popualtio will be down to half a billion or so – but the everyone willstart making babies with all the eggs in their ovearies and by 3020 the polualtion will be as high as 50 billion – and all will be wellfed and healthy!

  3. poor country mainly have high growth rate, while advanced country mainly have low growth rate. more advance a country lower the growth rate will be and more stable the need of natural resource for that country such as food.

    to solve the problem of over population, we need to make more advance country and help the poor country out of their mud pool. it's a big lie to avoid over population if there's still poor country exist

  4. There are no food shortages, or well, at least there needn't to be – it's just inequal distribitution.

  5. There's some Pro industrialization assumptions that inform this video. The video supports the dominant population Orthodoxy, that drops in reproductive rates is a good thing and a conscious choice among the population. It does not acknowledge the sharp drop in fertility rates among industrialized societies. It does not acknowledge economic pressures that coerce women into wage labor. It does not acknowledge that in pre-industrial societies children are an economic asset whereas in an industrialized and post industrial society children are an economic liability. And finally if fails to explain why so many people in an industrialized Society and post industrialized Society failed to reproduce at all. Foundational to evolution the foundational theory of life science, is the drive to pass on your own genes. Yet so many people seemingly "choose" not to reproduce while living in what we are told is the highest standard of living in history. Something doesn't add up.

  6. What do you think about sortable population pyramid like this one?
    http://scienic-data.com/pyramid-barchart-indonesian-age-range-and-gender-full/

  7. There’s way mor then seamen billion people living on earth people need to stop assuming the earth

  8. At 2:56 you can see that they flipped the colours so that the male side is pink and the female side is blue

  9. People are not interested in anything. No ones shares interests. No one is passionate. I am thinking this is the 1in 5 mental illness stat. I cannot explain it. Women dont even seem to be interested in me.

  10. Nice data storytelling of population structure! I'm starting to wonder whether migration process could be visualised and what sort of dataframe structure would that be.

  11. Certainly one useful graphic but by itself very limited if not misleading. The important graph is the graph showing future projected populations so for instance USA projected by 2050 to have approx 450 million or increase of 120 million over today in 30 years or so!!!,And where does America find the jobs and social services. Likewise Rwanda will explode with a social breakdown leading to more immigration (illegal) putting pressures on Europe already pressured. To not at least givepassing nod to this makes this a very uninformative TED lesson. POOR!!!!!

  12. But what about factors like Gynocentric-Hypergamy, where women forcibly discriminate men in a manner than even the Nazis could not evolve to , which downtrends reproduction rates?

  13. This also demonstrates why we need social security, and other senior entitlement programs. The young must be forced to serve the old. Without seniors being granted an entitlement to the incomes of the young, only pure injustice and despair for all will result.

  14. So far so good …. the population pyramids are relatively easy to understand ….. however ….. lets look at the total and utter screw ups of those same demographics experts when talking about their recommendations on how “to beat” the “disaster” (as they see it) of the population decline of all European countries …… the import of millions of totally incompatible, un-assimilatable, un-employable, violent, ungrateful individuals from Africa and the middle east …….. talking about a small disaster being replaced by a gigantic unsolvable disaster ……. and the dumber than a broom handle politicians who fell for their utterly none sensical recommendations …….

  15. Almost embarrasing that these so called experts can't even take high death rates for young people in africa into consideration. They have a huge number of kids because half of them will die young.

  16. I can’t. I literally can’t even! I refuse to watch this video in its entirety. You guys said there’s two genders. Male and female. That’s it. Have you guys been living in a cave? There are AT LEAST 72 genders! I’m beyond offended. Definitely not subscribing. Telling all my non-binary, gender non-conforming friends to report this video! I’m done with the internet for the day. Thank god for my dry closet. Idk where I’d be without it.

  17. You talk about what the wealthy elite and bankers want but not about what the actual people who live in the countries want . Do you even care???
    You do not talk about the things you could do to make the lives better for the people, You can create a baby boom in any country by giving tax breaks for mothers and babies , and make sure you have enough working young for each race to support the ageing population, there is no need to mix the races.

  18. We are facing problems with civilizational sustainability, not only of material resources, economic & social activities,

    but also human resources, like health ( including mental & social ) degradation over time and generation.

    I hope new techs centered on AI and policies to utilize them will solve the problems in a humane way 💖.

    https://ameblo.jp/lovelucifer/entry-12266020322.html
    / https://ameblo.jp/lovelucifer/entry-12380764530.html

  19. The most likes I’ve got was 221 try to get this more plz!! !!!!!,

    Edit: no likes after a week(my other comment had 37 in this time)
    Edit 2: still no likes after 2 weeks come one guys

  20. Too many people in the world's most backward, impoverished unstable countries. Nothing good can come of this.

  21. The funny thing is that the information on Japan is completely inaccurate! The birth rates have been steadily rising since 2005 and will raise to replacement level due to better childcare and womeneconomics. At least it’s a good thing that got misrepresented.

  22. I felt that one of the commentators on the video was going through an emotional crisis, but love and the knight of dreams chased her when she didn't feel. There are many secrets hidden by time

  23. I don't know why, but i love population pyramids. When I'm bored I play around with pyramids on a website https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/population-games/tomorrow-population/ idk but i just find it so cool

  24. こうしてみると、人類に支配者がいるのなら白人:黒人:黄色人種の人口比を1:1:1にしたいかのような意図を感じますね。

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